Presidential Polls and Democrat Pols
The polls and pols say, “Biden no. Biden go.”
Polls are not generally trusted and the candidate behind in the polls rationalizes the projected loss by saying, “Who trusts the polls?” President and candidate Joe Biden has used this rationale to continue his pursuit of world leader. He is wrong. The polls are telling a significant story and that story seems to have escaped the pollsters.
Three polls by popular and credible pollsters are shown.
CNN Poll of Polls: Biden approval rating
This poll shows Biden approval rating consistently below 44 percent and dropping to 37 percent on July 12, the day after his press conference at the NATO meeting.
Five Thirty Eight
This poll indicates that the two candidates were tied until Trump gained a slight lead after the June 27 debate. Biden’s followers use this data to argue that the slight fall indicates Joe has not significantly weakened. The other side of the coin is that only a slight gain for Trump indicates that the real estate magnate has not strengthened and is a weak candidate. A popular candidate would have gained a more substantial margin from an opponent, who has only 37 percent approval and gave a disastrous debate performance. Biden did not lose the debate; he lost himself. Trump lost the debate and exposed himself as a serial liar with no grasp of the issues.
Five Thirty Eight
These polls finish the story. Kamala Harris, already well known after four years as vice-president shows a narrow lead over a weak Trump. On July 10, 2024 her approval rating, steady at 38 percent over the year, dipped to 37.5 percent, as low as Joe. From past history, candidates with these ultra-low approval ratings do not win elections.
Candidate Donald has had a steady approval rating of 41.6 percent during the year, low for a potential victor and several points higher than Joe and Kamala. VP Harris is not liked and disliked slightly less than Trump, not a sure loser but a candidate who can only win if Trump becomes more disliked. A Harris win is a victory over Trump but a loss for the Democratic Party. Ms. Harris has not exhibited qualifications for the highest office in the land.
Governors Newsom and Whitmer, relative unknowns to much of the electorate show equal polling to Harris. As the public gets to know them, the two governors can only advance. These new faces are what the public wants and have the qualifications to serve in higher office.
Predictions
Biden will eventually drop out with an excuse that does not compromise his integrity and future recognition. He has achieved a celebrated legacy of being one of the most admired politicians in U.S. history, having served admirably for 52 years — thirty-six years as Senator from Delaware, eight years as vice president, and four years as president. Biden cannot achieve more to add to his record and, by not withdrawing, is gambling to have it marred in two situations.
(1) If he runs and loses to Trump, he will be remembered for having his record rejected and for allowing the most despised politician to gain the highest office.
(2) The next four years have headwinds in foreign and domestic policy that may prove to have no-win positions. The Ukraine and Middle East wars continue more explosive than contained; the BRICS and other alliances challenge U.S. hegemony; China’s continuous economic progress subdues U.S. economic prowess; and domestic problems of immigration, drugs, gun violence, birth control, protests against Israel’s genocide, and disenchantment with the political system divide the American public. Biden can only lose stature in a second presidency.
Nikki Haley will be the Republican vice-presidential candidate.
Trump has shifted from wanting only sycophants in his administration to needing someone to boost his candidacy. His glaring deficiencies are rapport with women and their vote and identification with the overthrow of Roe vs. Wade. Having Nikki Haley as a running mate will boost his prospects with women and neutralize what may be the most significant issue in the election. Halley has been vague on the abortion issue, indicating she favors women having a choice. "Let's humanize the issue. I am unapologetically pro-life, but abortion is a very personal issue," characterizes her attitude on this vital issue and is just what Trump needs to explain his administration’s position to the American public.
Her reversal of detesting Trump to supporting Trump, a trait of a true Trumpeter, showed she wants the position. Her leaving for home and loudly proclaiming she does not expect to attend the convention certifies the opposite. She will be there to accept the VP designation.
Governor Gavin Newsom will be the Democrat presidential candidate.
The California governor has been vocal in supporting Joe Biden to stay in the race. Why? He is not in the national spotlight. It is obvious that in seeking the nomination he does not want to be accused of undermining Biden so he can replace him. He has the record, approval, appearance, credibility character, vitality, and personality that will pulverize the solemn looking and devious Donald Trump.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer will be the Democrat vice-presidential candidate.
The Michigan governor is the choice counterpart to the attractive Newsom. She has the same commendable qualities and the two together make Trump/Haley or Trump/anybody look like Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette.
If I am correct, well, I’m a political genius. If I am wrong. it’s because I received bad advice.