Where Is and Where Goes Syria?
How long can Basher al-Assad last?
I visited Damascus with a delegation for a few days in 2007 and had the opportunity to meet and talk with a few of President Bashar al-Assad’s leading officials. At that time, international pundits wondered, “Where Is and where goes Syria? How long can Basher al-Assad last? Seventeen years later, the same questions are being asked. From news reports, the answer seems to be, “Not too long.” Can the man of 1000 lives survive another life? Will this article be obsolete before its 3 million anticipated readers have a chance to challenge it?
A few days was insufficient time to get national heartbeats and insufficient time to engage in authoritative discussions and form a definite opinion of where is and where goes Syria, at least at that time. Regardless of the limitations, the forced smiles of officials, servile press service, and appearance of a privileged class bothered me. I formed a dubious opinion of the Assad government and gathered impressions of a hypocritical and oppressive government, of a valiant and welcoming people, and of valid reasons for the government’s raison d’ être. Despite its despotic nature, Syria had no other choice of leadership than Bashar al-Assad.
From my notes, Bouthaina Shaaban, who became prominent by becoming the political and media adviser to Assad ─ the face of Assad ─ was introduced as Vice president of Cultural Affairs and Najah al-Attar, who gained fame by becoming the first woman in the Arab world to hold the position of Vice President, was described as the Minister of Expatriates. However, media has their minister positions as opposite, which leaves me guessing.
Minister Bouthaina Shaaban expressed herself as an independent, open-minded, progressive, and democratic leaning person. Her demeanor exuded confidence that the Assad regime was willing to be open but was constrained by fear of opening a door to instability. The liberated Syrian woman emphasized that she legislated to have nurseries in the ministries, which facilitated women serving as ministers. Seemed a gracious undertaking until I realized that the elegant nursery close to the Minister’s office may have served only her child and there may not be many, or any others. As Vice President, Bouthaina Shaaban, has not improved Assad’s face to the public and has faced wrath from those who feel she betrayed the Syrian people by continuing to support the Syrian president.
The Vice president of Cultural Affairs, Najah al-Attar, exhibited welcoming smiles, and sensitivity and empathy for oppressed peoples. My notes have her saying that Syria looks after its expatriates, follows their travails, welcomes them back, and considers their children as citizens of Syria. Maybe, I’m being conspiratorial but behind the empathy I sensed a disguise that carefully watched expatriates for derogatory actions against Syria and tried to convince them to bring back accumulated wealth and resources to their mother country.
Vice president of Foreign Relations, Farouk Sharaa, impressed as a well-informed diplomat, who understood foreign relations and diplomacy, unlike the parade, or charade, of U.S. Secretaries of State, who, during the last three administrations seemed out of place in foreign countries. VP Sharaa, in late 2007, believed all Israel's political parties feared peace and sensed that the U.S. policies encouraged Israel to attack Lebanon and continue the conflict. “Israel is on a suicide path, and, if Israel is a decision maker in the U.S. then the U.S. loses.” The vice president contradicted an accepted belief that Syria would not accept direct assistance for the Iraqi displaced persons. He announced that NGOs and the U.S. government were welcome to contribute their assistance.
To its credit, Syria succored Palestinians forced from Israel, and allowed them to establish their own neighborhoods at the Damascus periphery and remain committed to returning to their homeland. Palestinians received all rights, except citizenship and entry into government. Added to Syria’s altruism, was its sacrifice in allowing an estimated 1.2 million Iraqi displaced persons (similar to Jordan, Syria refused to call them refugees) to move among its population and secure housing, free education, and entry to the health system. Syria deserves commendation for acting as a safety valve to the calamities resulting from displaced Palestinians and Iraqis, innocent casualties from several wars. Another plus; In several occasions, the Assads allowed opposition political Parties to appear before crushing them. Fear of instability, or a deliberate strategy to expose and eliminate opposition?
The look from the top of Mount Qasioun to the city below struck me as a representation of the Baathist regime. With its military installations along the mountain, several fashionable restaurants on its summit, seemingly catering to an elite, and intense security, the Baathists had their privacy and security as they looked down upon the citizens below. I remember having our delegation’s dinner delayed for security reasons, undoubtedly until government officials finished their meals.
My opinion is that President Bashar al-Assad meant well, but was up against it. In his administration, the Syrians had education, health services, and food on the table but lacked what was most needed, political and judicial reform. After his inheritance of the Syrian leadership, the civil society was allowed to urge reforms. Bashar al-Assad tried, but even his meager reforms were quickly discarded, and the opposition was again suppressed under the fear of national disunity and instability, or was it under the guise of maintaining national unity and stability?
After hostilities ended, Assad gazed at a Syria in name only. Several millions of displaced Syrians still refused, were unable, or unwelcome to return and form a reunited Syria. The Baathists were satisfied that the secular opposition remained subdued and the Islamist extremists, mainly Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, stayed quartered in the Idlib governate. Syria had a large military and never a large fighting force. The Syrian people don’t relish being killed for any reason and their pacific and empathetic nature don’t drive them to harm anyone. Peaceful Syrians are the opposite of murderous Zionist Israelis.
No need for a Syrian population to protect the government, Syria had its allies — Hezbollah, Russian air force, Iran, and Kurdish militias performing the task. The Kurds weren’t defending the government, but, in defending themselves against mutual enemies, they served the government. As the year 2024 progressed, the stars that guided Assad’s fate started to align — Russia was too occupied with its own war to assist anyone else, Hezbollah had suffered excessive casualties in its quarrel with Israel and Shi’a mothers were no longer willing to send sons to die in foreign territory, Kurds were gridlocked by Turkish forces, and Iran was regrouping and trying to cut its losses.
As of 5:29 PM on the seventh of December, Pearl Harbor day, a day that will live in infamy, the Baathist regime appears to have suffered its own Pearl Harbor; all of its ships are rapidly sinking. Unlike the United States, Syria cannot fight back and win this struggle. That does not mean the Baathists are totally defeated. The larger struggle has yet to come. Who, among the many factions — National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, National Council of Syria, National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change, Syrian Democratic Council, Muslim Brotherhood, Coalition of Secular and Democratic Syrians, National Salvation Front in Syria — will be able to cooperate or contend with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its Turkish-backed Syrian militias, who already have a fragile relationship.
One scenario has Assad flying to Moscow or Tehran to consult, and consult, and consult, and consult until the day that the coming turmoil in Damascus becomes unresolvable and Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Force, backed by Iran will enter the fray. What goes around, comes around. Syria is a spinning top. Not well received by the United States and Türkiye.
Another scenario has Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Türkiye President, serving as overlord and mediator for Syria’s upcoming political process and installing a moderate Islamic faction to lead the government ─ Türkiye Two. Not too well received by Israel.
Between its perceived two evils, Israel will determine the choice, an Iran backed Assad is easier to handle than a NATO backed Erdogan.